MAM Seasonal Forecast 2024

Bulletin

Highlights

Outlook for March-April-May (MAM) 2024:

  • Expectation of above-average rainfall across the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, Central, Northern, and Southern Rift Valleys, as well as Northeastern, Southeastern Lowlands, and Northwestern regions.
  • Coastal region and parts of the Southeastern lowlands likely to experience generally near-average to above-average rainfall.
  • Occasional storms anticipated in various parts of the country.
  • Predominantly warmer than average temperatures expected across most of the country.

Review of the October-November-December (OND) 2023 Rainfall Season:

  • Most locations recorded above-average rainfall, with exceptions in the Central Rift Valley (Nakuru), Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Nyahururu), Southeastern lowlands (Voi), Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Kitale), and Northwest (Lodwar), where rainfall was near average.
  • Rainfall onset was from the third to fourth week of October for most areas, with a few areas over the Coast and Southeastern lowlands starting in the first week of November.
  • Rainfall distribution was good in October and November but poor in December.
  • The season featured severe storms affecting the Coastal region, Southeastern lowlands, Highlands East of the Rift Valley, and Northeastern Kenya.